It is the Million-Pound Question. Who Will Win The Premier League?

In British pubs, regulars love a good footballing discussion. Who will be getting relegated? Who will qualify for European competitions? Will England ever win a trophy again? However, no question creates as much division as this one: Who will win the Premier League?

While the English Premier League is still in its opening 10 games of the season, speculation has already begun as to who might emerge the victor. Guardiola’s Man City have won the last six out of seven league titles, with former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp managing to halt his powerhouse through winning the league in 2020. With Klopp leaving at the end of last season and Arne Slot replacing him, Liverpool are currently second in the standings although only five points separate the top three. Slot’s lack of experience as a Premier League manager and Liverpool currently being in a rebuilding process following Klopp’s departure does raise questions as to how long they will be able to keep up these promising performances.

In recent years, Arsenal, with the help of Guardiola’s apprentice Arteta, have come close to lifting the trophy, yet have lacked the consistency and squad depth to win the title. Last year, Arsenal dropped points against Liverpool, Southampton and Man City. Arsenal has one of the strongest centre-back pairings in Saliba and Gabriel, and conceded the fewest goals and chances last season. If they are able to close off games earlier, and get their attackers generating more chances, they could emerge as top contenders for the run-in at the end of the season.

Why are Man City in a worse position this year? Predicting the Premier League is an impossible task. Even at the highest level, football can end up being a game of defining moments. We saw this with Man City’s first Premier League title, when Aguero scored a last-minute winner to beat Queen’s Park Rangers on the final day of the season. On the other hand, moments do not win the Premier League; tactics do, and Man City have a tactical problem.

Under Guardiola, Man City have been used to suffocating opponents through keeping the ball under high pressure, high up the pitch, thus limiting the amount of chances opponents will have at controlling possession, and creating chances to score and win games themselves. This balance has been underpinned by Man City’s midfielder, Rodri, who has just been ruled out for a season long knee injury. We saw this effect immediately, against Fulham and Newcastle: Man City were conceding an unusually high number of chances and had to rely on goalkeeper Ederson to bail them out. Were this trend to continue throughout the season, it could prove costly against top teams.

In both of these games, Man City looked exposed by wingers such as Adama Traore, Isaak, and Gordon. Whilst these players are of high class, they do not compare to the likes of Palmer, Son, Salah and Saka, who given the right opportunity will punish the Manchester City defence.

Having said all of this, Man City still finds a way every season. They have the best striker in the world in the form of Haaland, the best passer in the form of De Bruyne (once he returns from injury), and Guardiola’s trademark skill is adapting to find his best eleven, with a style of play which wins trophies. Man City are aware of their problems and you’d bet they have come up with a plan to solve them. Their ability to do so will dictate whether we see them, or another team, win the league.