All Hail the Demissance—Who Will Win (and Who Should) at the 97th Academy Awards?

Demi Moore in The Substance. Credit: The Match Factory

By Nikola Kralev. Opinion.

Hollywood thrives on a great comeback story, as if it were woven into the industry’s DNA—fading stars reclaim their brilliance, and long-dismissed icons return to seize the recognition they always deserved. And if there is one person embodying that narrative this year, it is none other than Demi Moore. Her return, dubbed by some as the Demissance, is undeniably praiseworthy, yet it is far from the only comeback story this awards season. The 97th Academy Awards are shaping up to be a battle between future cult classics, indie gems, and exemplary Oscar bait. Whether the Academy will embrace change or stick to tradition is anyone’s guess. So, biases included, here is my breakdown of the major categories—the expected winners, the should-be winners, and the wild cards that could shake up the night.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Ariana Grande is the one who deserves the award for Actress in a Supporting Role for her nuanced and captivating role as Glinda in Wicked. Having grown up watching her as Cat Valentine, I was both astonished and thrilled to see how she fully embraced the challenge of portraying the Good Witch of the North. I cannot wait to see her reprise the role in Wicked: For Good later this year. That said, I predict, like many others, that the Academy will favour Zoe Saldaña. To be honest, her performance was the only redeemable aspect of Emilia Pérez—layered, distinct from her previous roles, and a showcase of her acting, singing, and dancing abilities. To be clear, I am not here to jump on the Emilia Pérez hate train—that would constitute a whole separate piece. While the movie did not deliver as expected due to its poor depiction of Mexican culture and the trans community, Saldaña’s work is commendable and should have even been nominated in the Best Actress category instead. As a wild card, Monica Barbaro deserves mention for her performance as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. With her captivating screen presence and undeniable charm, she is someone audiences should keep an eye on as she takes on bigger roles. Ultimately, while Grande is my ideal winner, Saldaña’s consistent success during this awards season makes her the likely victor.

Actor in a Supporting Role

In this category, the competition is not even close—Kieran Culkin’s portrayal of Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain is a masterclass in balancing humor and pathos. Directed by Jesse Eisenberg, the film follows Benji, a free-spirited yet troubled individual who journeys to Poland with his cousin David (Eisenberg) to explore their shared heritage. Culkin’s performance has earned widespread praise for its depth and authenticity, capturing the complexities of a man grappling with personal demons while seeking connection. His ability to oscillate between charm and vulnerability makes Benji both relatable and compelling. Having already secured a Golden Globe and a BAFTA, Culkin is both my personal favourite and the predicted frontrunner for the Oscar. Still, Jeremy Strong deserves recognition for his formidable performance as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, a biopic that explores the early influences on Donald Trump. Strong’s portrayal of Cohn is intense and unflinching, capturing both his ruthless ambition and moral ambiguity. Although Strong may not take home the award, his performance is undoubtedly worthy of praise.

Actor in a Leading Role

Is it time for Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor at the Oscars? Absolutely. Will he? Unfortunately, no. Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown is a masterclass in transformation, capturing Dylan’s enigmatic presence with nuance and depth. Despite his remarkable performance, the momentum seems to favor another contender. Adrien Brody’s role in The Brutalist has received significant acclaim, positioning him as the category’s frontrunner. His portrayal of László Tóth, a Hungarian-Jewish architect navigating post-war America, is both powerful and poignant. Brody’s performance has been described as “riveting” and “multifaceted,” capturing the complexities of a man striving for success amidst personal and societal challenges. With the film’s critical success and Brody’s compelling performance, he seems poised to take home the Oscar. It is also worth highlighting Sebastian Stan’s daring portrayal of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice. Bold and transformative, Stan delves into the complexities and ambitions of the former president’s early years. While the role has sparked controversy and debate, Stan’s commitment to the character (understanding Trump’s mannerisms and speech peculiarities by watching hundreds of pieces of media) showcases his versatility and courage as an actor. Though he may not be the frontrunner, his performance is certainly noteworthy.

Directing

Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance is, without a doubt, the year’s biggest directorial flex. The fact that the Academy is finally recognizing a horror film—and giving the genre its long-overdue respect—is shocking in the best possible way. Even so, watching the behind-the-scenes documentary on The Substance reveals the sheer dedication and vision Fargeat brought to the project. Through her bold and unflinching storytelling, she explores themes of feminism, beauty standards, and self-acceptance, directly challenging the very industry that now celebrates her work. Perhaps it is time for some real reflection—and for a fourth woman (and Sciences Po alumna) to take home Best Director. Realistically, though, I believe the Academy will award Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The fact that a 211-minute movie with stunning visuals, exceptional cinematography, and standout performances was made for under ten million dollars is mind-blowing. Like Fargeat, Corbet’s vision and flawless execution elevate him from a good director to a great one. The story of a U.S. immigrant’s pursuit of success in a post-war world is familiar, yet The Brutalist leaves a lasting impression. Despite the film’s AI controversy, where Adrien Brody’s Hungarian accent was artificially augmented to sound more “authentic,” it will be interesting to see if the Academy acknowledges or condemns its use—if Corbet takes home the award, the answer will be more clear. In this category, an honorary mention goes to Sean Baker for Anora as he similarly managed to put together a masterpiece with a minimal budget and did so splendidly.

Actress in a Leading Role

This is one category where I can confidently say that the person who should win is also the person who will win. Hollywood loves a redemption arc, and Demi Moore’s is one of the best we have seen in recent years. Her performance in The Substance was so compelling that it felt as though Coralie Fargeat wrote the character specifically for her. In many ways, Moore continues the legacy of Michelle Yeoh’s 2023 Oscar acceptance speech, proving that women are never past their prime and can deliver powerful performances whenever they choose. Fearless, transformative, and demanding of recognition, Moore’s performance has earned her both critical acclaim and accolades at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. After years of being underestimated, the term popcorn actress will no longer define her. To acknowledge the competition, I must mention Mikey Madison’s title role in Anora. The film’s raw and emotional storytelling—enhanced by spontaneous improvisations and Sean Baker’s compelling screenplay—results in a deeply human performance. Madison fully immerses herself in the character of Ani, convincingly portraying the complexities of a third-generation hyphenated American whose rusty Russian is both charming and authentic. If Moore does not take home the award, Madison’s victory would still be well-deserved.

Best Picture

The winner should and will be Anora. It is a wild ride that leaves you reflecting on life—the choices that have led you to where you are, the endless possibilities for a different tomorrow, and the lengths you are willing to go to for an idea that could change your life forever. While the film does not present these themes in a deeply philosophical manner, it subtly provokes thought through its raw storytelling. By capturing the essence of overlooked communities, Baker creates a modern Cinderella story that challenges conventional notions of a happy ending. Or does it? The film’s beauty lies in its ambiguity, leaving us to ponder whether Ani’s ending is truly happy—or whether such a question even matters. After all, none of us can predict the consequences of our choices, and Anora captures that uncertainty with breathtaking symbolism, music, and cinematography. This is the film that should—and will—win Best Picture.