Somewhere in the middle of a desert, in a large conference room decorated with chandeliers and glittering lights, green code reminiscent of the Matrix rained down on a screen showcasing skyscrapers climbing high in the desert. The amicable and clear voice of a woman with a British accent blares through the speakers, declaring that the world is now witnessing “a sublime and transcendent entity.” The voice describes how, prior to the establishment of modern technology, there was a “shapeless and confused mass of elementary data”, until “a superior intelligence separated raw data from structured information.” This superior intelligence was once humans, and now, of course, is AI.
This bizarre display took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at the third edition of the city’s Global AI Summit, in September of last year. Robots poured tea and drinks, American and Chinese technology companies pitched their products, and in an ode to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, attendants distributed stickers stamped with, “Data is the new oil.”
The United States is slowly yet surely losing its monopoly over AI in both the Middle East and Asia. DeepSeek, a Chinese AI lab, unveiled its open-source large language model (LLM) DeepSeek-V3 in late December 2024. In third-party benchmark tests, DeepSeek-V3 matched the capabilities of OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.5 while outperforming others, such as Meta’s Llama 3.1 and Alibaba’s Qwen2.5, in tasks that included problem-solving, coding and math. On January 20, a newer model was released by the name of DeepSeek-R1, a development that unsettles Silicon Valley, with it surpassing ChatGPT’s latest o1 model in many of the same tests, costing a fraction of other models, with a semi-open-source nature, and its training on significantly less graphics processing units (GPUs) has raised the specter of China’s AI models surpassing their U.S. counterparts. S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that “should US supplies not be available, firms from mainland China and Hong Kong, which already accounted for 31.8% of supplies of traditional servers, may take the lead.”
Saudi Arabia plans to create a $40 billion fund to invest in AI and has set out to build its very own Silicon Valley. The United Arab Emirates launched the world’s first university dedicated to AI in 2019 and released a series of open-source large language models that are claimed to rival those of Google and Meta. Earlier last year, it launched an investment firm focused on AI and semiconductors.
The prevalent rise of AI in the Middle East speaks to a pattern of international relations and diplomatic goals seen clearly in modern politics. For Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, harnessing AI is an increasingly important goal for the purpose of establishing a new economic model, lucrative enough to replace their oil monopolies as the world slowly transitions away from fossil fuels. For capital and profit hungry American technology companies, the Gulf nations are worthy business partners with their glittering wealth and the promise of more.
For American policy makers, AI presents an irresistible opportunity of both an increased access to American computing power, and an expert move on the chessboard in the game of luring the Gulf states away from China and reinvigorating an anti-Iranian coalition in the Middle East—a game made increasingly important with the recent rise of intergovernmental organizations that do not involve the United States, such as BRICS. It is in Washington’s interests that the Gulf superpowers invest their vast sums of capital, land, and energy in U.S. technology companies rather than Chinese or Russian ones.
The scene in Riyadh may epitomize the aspirations of Gulf states to redefine themselves as technology hubs and stray away from their established oil superpower reputations. However, this ambitious transition also exemplifies the broader patterns of AI’s role in international relations. For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, investing heavily in AI is not just about economic diversification—it is a play for strategic influence. By positioning themselves at the forefront of AI innovation, they do not only aim to enhance their relevance on the global stage, but also make sure to align themselves with powerful players like the United States and China. This keeps both nations fighting for favor with the purpose of gaining concessions. Hence, it is to be noted that the emergence of artificial intelligence is not only transforming industries but also redefining the very fabric of international diplomacy.
The Gulf nations’ AI ambitions are emblematic of a larger geopolitical race. As nations seek to harness AI for economic, strategic, and military advantages, the competition for dominance in AI innovation is accelerating. With each adopting different strategies, international powers such as the United States, China, and Europe are always vying for leadership in parallel to scientific discoveries, and AI is no exception. For example, while the U.S. emphasizes partnerships with private-sector leaders like OpenAI and Google, China pursues a state-driven model, integrating AI across its military and governance systems. Meanwhile, Europe focuses on ethical AI governance, leading the charge with regulatory frameworks like the EU’s AI Act.
The United States has a good deal of leverage over these technological partnerships because exporting the advanced chips used in AI data centers requires licenses from the U.S. government, which has been slow-walking approvals for large-scale sales for months and threatening to cap supplies. Yet, as evidenced by the tangible reminder of the booths of Chinese firms Alibaba and Huawei at Riaydh’s spectacle conference, the U.S is slowly losing its monopoly over international relations in this increasingly multipolar world—it is likely that Chinese options may be available to the Gulf states if the U.S decides to adopt a more restrictive approach.
Yet, this race is fraught with risk and destruction. As noted by Kristian Humble of the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, the growing militarization of AI threatens to further destabilize global security as an increasingly powerful development in the warlike phenomenon. Autonomous weapons systems, enhanced by AI, are challenging traditional norms of warfare. These tools raise ethical concerns, such as accountability in conflict, and practical risks, including escalation due to machine error and disproportionately increased casualties in a war without human awareness, reason, subjectivity, or emotion.
The use of AI in diplomacy also raises questions about governance, trust, and inclusivity. For instance, AI-driven data analytics and predictive models can streamline negotiations and enhance decision-making. Yet, they also introduce risks of bias, manipulation, and misuse. AI systems can be weaponized for disinformation campaigns, further destabilizing trust in international relations. For instance, audio and visual deepfake technology, a product of AI, has been used to spread false information about political leaders, incite violence, and undermine electoral processes, used by both foreign states and average citizens. A notable example is the spread of fake videos during the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections, which amplified political polarization and strained diplomatic relations with adversarial states.
This makes it evident that one of the most profound challenges of utilizing AI in the diplomatic scene is the issue of trust. Diplomacy relies heavily on the perceived credibility of the actors involved. Even with human subjectivity operating in regards to its use, AI systems operate as non-human entities, with their decision-making processes often remaining opaque, even to their developers. This lack of transparency can erode trust between nations. If a country bases its foreign policy decisions on AI recommendations, other states may question the validity and neutrality of those decisions.
One of the most critical aspects of AI in diplomacy is the growing influence of private tech companies. Corporations like Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI play a pivotal role in developing AI tools that are then adopted by governments. This blurs the line between public policy and corporate interests, and, in a capitalistic world, makes it harder to impose limitations or control. In 2017, 126 CEOs and founders of robotics and AI businesses signed an open letter from the Future Life Institute to the UN, which “implored” states to stop an arms race for autonomous weapons systems (AWS). Nevertheless, there is no worldwide legal regulatory structure to handle these issues regarding AI use, especially when it comes to conflict. Article 26 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights provides the only legal framework for AI, which only connects the use of AI to the right to privacy.
In conclusion, the intersection of artificial intelligence and diplomacy represents a defining moment in global politics. From the glittering ambitions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the broader geopolitical competition between the United States, China, and emerging blocs like BRICS, AI is reshaping power dynamics and economic strategies. These developments highlight how AI is becoming a critical front in geopolitical rivalries, rather than a neutral tool for diplomacy. While AI may offer transformative opportunities—such as economic diversification—it also poses risks, including exacerbated global inequalities, militarization, and disinformation threats, not to mention its strain on the environment and labor workers. As technology continues to evolve, the choices made today will determine whether the world moves toward a future of cooperative innovation or intensified rivalry.
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